In two month, Paris will host the “Games of the XXXIII Olympiad” or “Paris 2024”, where 10,500 athletes from more than 200 nations will compete in 32 different sports. For the first time in the history of the Olympic Games, the number of female and male athletes is completely equal. Likewise, the number of disciplines in which both sexes compete together has significantly increased. Over 16 intense days, a total of 329 sets of medals will be awarded, most of them in athletics with as many as 48 and the fewest in football, handball, golf and modern pentathlon with only two sets of medals – one for women and one for men. There are four new sports on the 2024 Olympic programme: breakdancing, skateboarding, sport climbing and surfing. All four sports, which have very limited distribution in the Nordics and where the number of Olympic athletes from the Nordic countries will be minimal.
The Olympics have an extremely large media focus
For virtually all athletes, the Olympics are a unique event where dreams and magical moments can be realized. However, the Olympics can also be the event where many years of hard training efforts, week-long training camps and great deprivation from family and friends are in no way rewarded. Among the most important factors for the Olympics’ special character is the enormous attention from millions of electronic and digital media that the event attracts. It is estimated that Olympic disciplines such as the finals in athletics, swimming, golf and tennis, have up to 2-3 billion television viewers or almost half of the world’s population.
Remarkable sporting results with modest populations
The four Nordic countries – Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark – have both historically and currently achieved remarkable results at the Olympics, especially in relation to the Nordic countries’ relatively modest population. The sporting success in the Nordics can be explained on the basis of many different factors: high prosperity and a strong welfare model, financial resources for elite sports from the state and municipalities, diverse sport clubs with high participation by children, targeted talent development, efficient organizational and management structure, good training facilities, competent coaches, and close connection between research, innovation, training and competitions.
The analysis institute predicts 35 Olympic medals for the Nordics
In my opinion, sporting success at the Olympics can be measured on three parameters: the number of qualified sports, top-8 rankings and medals. For most sports, the Olympic qualification for the Games in Paris has been completed, but for some sports such as athletics and swimming, the “Olympic Trials” in the US only take place at the end of June, i.e. only one month before the Games. The national Olympic committees are these weeks setting goals for their teams and athletes in the individual sports. There are different methods to solve that task, but most nations usually use the last 2-3 years’ World Championship results as benchmarks. It is also the method used by the analysis institute “Gracenote Global Sports Data”, which recently published the expected number of medals for the individual nations at the 2024 Olympics. “Gracenote” chose to specify the carat of the medals (gold, silver and bronze), but neither athletes, teams or sports. “Gracenote” predicts that Denmark will win 14 medals (5-4-5), Sweden 12 medals (6-3-3), Norway 8 medals (4-2-2), while Finland will “only” win a single bronze medal. In the following sections, let me offer my bids on the biggest medal candidates in individual countries.
Sweden – Sarah Sjöström is a strong medal candidate
Sweden has qualified athletes and teams for the 2024 Olympics in 18 sports, which will be less than the 2020 Olympics, where Sweden was represented in 22 sports. In my opinion, Sweden’s biggest Olympic medal candidates are the pole vaulter Armand Duplantis and the discus thrower Daniel Ståhl, who both won Olympic gold in Tokyo, as well as the swimmer Sarah Sjöström, who has previously won four Olympic medals and eight World Championship medals in long distance. In addition, Sweden has good medal chances in equestrian jumping – both individually and as a team – Jonatan Hellvig and David Åhman in beach volleyball as well as 49er FX sailors Vilma Bobeck and Rebecca Netzler.
Norway – Several medal candidates in athletics
Norway has qualified athletes and teams in 18 sports, which is the largest number of sports ever in Olympics. In recent years, Norway has developed a number of world-class athletes in athletics, several of whom are medal candidates in Paris. The 400-m hurdler Karsten Warholm, who won Olympic gold in Tokyo and the World Championship title in both 2017, 2019 and 2023, is the big favorite for an Olympic medal, just as the battle for the Olympic medals in the 1,500 m has two Norwegian candidates: Jakob Ingebrigtsen and Narve Gilje Nordås. Beach volleyball duo Anders Mol and Christian Sørum and triathlete Kristian Blummenfelt, who won Olympic gold in Tokyo, are also good Norwegian medal bids in Paris. Finally, I believe in Olympic medals for the Norwegian handball women and Jon-Hermann Hegg in rifle shooting.
Finland – Few medal candidates
Finland has qualified athletes and teams in 13 sports, which is two more than at the 2020 Olympics. Over the past decade, Finland has seriously lost competitive power compared to the other Nordic countries, as it is only turned into one bronze medal at the 2016 Olympics in Rio and two bronze medals at the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. In my opinion, the biggest Finnish medal candidates in Paris are pole vaulter Wilma Murto and hammer thrower Silja Kosonen.
Denmark – Many medal candidates in cycling
Denmark has qualified athletes and teams in 20 sports, which is the largest number of sports at the Olympic Games. In my opinion, Denmark clearly has the most medal candidates in cycling, both on the track (the team pursuit, Madison and Omnium for both women and men) and on the road (Mads Pedersen). The badminton player Viktor Axelsen, the kayakers Emma Aastrand Jørgensen (K1-500 and K2-500) and Frederikke Matthiesen (K2-500), the men’s team handball and not least the sailor Anne-Marie Rindom, who like Axelsen won Olympic gold in Tokyo, appear as obvious medal candidates.
The Olympic Games always contain sporting surprises, both positive and negative. This will also happen at the upcoming 2024 Olympics in Paris. I believe – like “Gracenote Global Sports Data” – in many Olympic medals for both Denmark, Sweden and Norway. A total bid of 35 Olympic medals for the Nordics is very optimistic, whereas the estimate of 15 gold medals is, in my opinion, far too optimistic. For comparison, it can be mentioned that the Nordic countries won a total of 31 medals, of which 4 were gold, at the 2016 Olympics and 30 medals, of which 10 were gold, at the 2020 Olympics.
You can get further information on the following websites:
- Gracenote Global Sports Data – https://www.nielsen.com/solutions/content-metadata/global-sports-data/
- International Olympic Committee – https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024
- Sveriges Olympiska Kommitté – https://sok.se/
- Olympiatoppen – https://olympiatoppen.no/
- Suomen Olympiakomitea – https://www.olympiakomitea.fi/
- Danmarks Olympiske Komité – https://www.dif.dk/olympisk/ol
- Team Danmark – https://www.teamdanmark.dk/
Postscript – 11 August 2024
The last competitions at “Paris 2024” have ended after lots of top performances, also by athletes and teams from the Nordic countries. Both “Gracenote Global Sports Data” and the Danish Institute for Sports Studies’ forecast for the number of medals and carats for the Nordics turned out to be too optimistic. The result was a total of 28 medals, of which 10 were gold – far from the 35 medals, including 15 gold (Gracenote), but close to 31 medals, including 10 gold (the Danish Institute for Sports Studies). With 11 medals (4-4-3) and 129 top-8 ranking points, Sweden was clearly the best Nordic nation. Norway won 8 medals (4-1-3) and earned 113 top-8 ranking points, while Finland won no medals and earned 22 top-8 ranking points. Denmark achieved 9 medals (2-2-5) and 105 top-8 ranking points – the lowest number since the 2008 Olympics.
Sweden was No. 16 in the IOC’s official national competition and especially swimmer Sarah Sjöström with two Olympic gold medals (50 and 100 meter freestyle), pole vaulter Armand Duplantis with a world record of 6.25 meters and beach volleyball duo Jonatan Hellvig and David Åhman showed world class with superb final victories, 49X sailors Vilma Bobeck Rebecca Netzler table tennis with two silver medals for Truls Möregårdh in singles and the men’s team was also actors in the best Olympic result for Sweden since Sydney 2000.
Norway came 18th in the national competition, not least because of impressive results in athletics. Both Markus Rooth in the decathlon, Jakob Ingebregtsen in the 5,000 meters and the handball women’s team won gold medals, while the 400 m-hurdler Karsten Warholm had to “make do with” Olympic silver. The biggest Norwegian surprise was undoubtedly the weightlifter Solfrid Koanda, who won Olympic gold and set two Olympic records. Defending Olympic winners Anders Mol and Christian Sørum won bronze medals in beach volleyball, while triathlete Kristian Blummenfelt was disappointing with 12th place.
Finland had another disappointing Olympics with best results achieved by javelin thrower Silja Kosonen, boxer Pihla Kaivonen and skateboarder Heili Sirviö with 5th places, while pole vaulter Wilma Murto was 6th.
Denmark was No. 29 in the IOC official national competition, mainly due to world-class performances by badminton player Viktor Axelsen (gold), men’s team handball and sailor Anne-Marie Rindom (silver). Unfortunately, several medal contenders underperformed, especially in track and road cycling. The biggest positive results were dressage riding with a silver medal in the team competition, as well as bronze medals for the wrestler Turpal Bisultanov and the taekwondo fighter Edi Hrnic. The Danish Olympic results in Paris – especially modest top-8 ranking points of 103 – compared to the last three Olympics (148-135-135) should attract extra attention from Team Denmark and federations such as rowing, sailing, kayaking, swimming and athletics with many disciplines. There are too few athletes and teams in these sports, which currently has world class and the road to medals at the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles seems incredibly long for several sports.
Table 1: Olympic Medals and Medal points 2004–2024 – the Nordics
|
Athen 2004 |
Beijing
2008 |
London
2012 |
Rio
2016 |
Tokyo
2020 |
Paris 2024 |
|
| Sweden |
7 (4-2-1) 28 |
5 (0-4-1)
14 |
8 (1-4-3)
23 |
11 (2-6-3)
34 |
9 (3-6-0)
33 |
11 (4-4-3) 38 |
| Norway |
6 (5-0-1) 27 |
9 (3-5-1)
32 |
4 (2-1-1)
15 |
4 (0-0-4)
8 |
8 (4-2-2)
30 |
8 (4-1-3) 29 |
| Finland |
2 (0-2-0) 6 |
4 (1-1-2)
12 |
3 (0-2-1)
8 |
1 (0-0-1)
2 |
2 (0-0-2)
4 |
0 (0-0-0) 0 |
| Denmark |
8 (2-1-5) 23 |
7 (2-2-3)
22 |
9 (2-4-3)
28 |
15 (2-6-7)
42 |
11 (3-4-4)
35 |
9 (2-2-5) 26 |
Table 2: Olympic Top-8 ranking points 2004–2024 – the Nordics
|
|
Athen
2004 |
Beijing
2008 |
London
2012 |
Rio
2016 |
Tokyo
2020 |
Paris 2024 |
| Sweden |
127 |
106 | 123 | 131 | 134 |
129 |
| Norway |
68 |
94 | 46 | 30 | 87 |
111 |
| Finland |
21 |
51 | 35 | 14 | 30 |
22 |
| Denmark |
98 |
87 | 148 | 135 | 135 |
103 |
Note: International analysis and research institutions often use Top-8 points at the Olympics and World Championships. No. 1 (Gold medal) is awarded 8 points, No. 2 (Silver medal) is awarded 7 points, No. 3 (Bronze medal) is awarded 6 points … and No. 8 is awarded 1 point. The explanation is that the density of competition in the vast majority of Olympic disciplines has become more and more intense, which means that the margins between a medal winner and ranking as No. 4 or No. 8 are very often extremely modest.
Source: The Danish Institute for Sports Studies – https://www.idan.dk/om-os/about-us/
