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In recent weeks, the World Championships 2019 in alpine skiing, Nordic disciplines – cross-country skiing, ski jumping and combined – and biathlon showed once again that Norway is the World’s best winter sports nation. Norway won a total of 38 WC medals (20 gold, 9 silver and 9 bronze medals) in 45 disciplines, including 44 per cent of the gold medals, which is Norway’s best result ever.  The FIS Alpine World Ski Championship 2019, which was held in Åre near the Norwegian border, started with a total of 4 WC medals for the Norwegian athletes: WC gold medal to Kjertil Jansrud in men’s downhill and Henrik Kristoffersen in men’s giant slalom and WC silver medal in men’s downhill  to veteran Aksel Lund Svindal, who finished a great career at the WC. In addition, Ragnhild Mowinckel won the WC bronze medal in women’s alpine combined downhill. The FIS Nordic World Ski Championship 2019, which were held in Seefeld, followed up with historic 25 WC medals, of which a total of 18 medals were won in cross-country skiing. Of these, no less than 10 were of the highest quality – gold medals – with Therese Johaug as World Champion in both 10 km classic style, 15 km skiathlon and 30 km free style. An impressive comeback by 30-year-old Johaug after her 18-month doping ban. In addition, there were four WC medals (one gold, one silver and two bronze medals) in ski jumping and three WC medals (two gold and one silver medals) in a combined events for the Norwegian athletes and teams. Finally, Norway won 9 WC medals (five gold, three silver and one bronze medals) at the IBU World Championships Biathlon 2019, which was held in Östersund also close to the Norwegian border. Here, Johannes Thingnes Boe was the most winning Norwegian athlete with five WC medals and no less than four of gold.

Supreme winner of the national competition at the 2018 Winter Olympics

Norway was also at the 2018 Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, the best nation with a total of 39 Olympic medals,(14 gold, 14 silver and 11 bronze medals). Norway was the supreme winner of the all nation competition in front of strong winter sports nations such as Germany, Canada and the United States.

Winter sports are popular among children and youngsters

There are many explanations for Norway’s total dominance in winter sports. Firstly, recruiting children and youngsters for winter sports in Norway is quite unique. There are many strong clubs throughout Norway, both in alpine skiing, ski jumping and not least in cross-country skiing. The philosophy of the clubs and the Norwegian Ski Federation is to keep as many children as possible in the sport as long as possible through versatile training and competitions. Cross-country skiing is the sport in Norway, which in recent years has the greatest increase in membership of children and youngsters. There are many well-functioned ski clubs in the Oslo area such as Kjelsås IL, Lyn Ski and Fossum IF, all with more than 1,000 children and youngsters as members. It also means that cross-country skiing is the second largest sport among children in Norway, only surpassed by football.

Good training facilities and lots of training camps on the mountains

Secondly, Norway has an ideal climate and optimal nature for winter sports. Global climate change means that the season for winter sports such as cross-country skiing, biathlon, Nordic combined and alpine skiing is very long, from mid-October to late May. The ideal climate and the optimal training facilities also mean that the vast majority of Norwegian top athletes in winter sports prefer to train at home and the National teams – both in cross-country skiing, alpine skiing, Nordic combined and biathlon – carry out more and more training camps in the Norwegian mountains, where climate and skiing conditions is absolutely optimal.

Excellent international results attract commercial partners

Thirdly, winter sports have become commercially very popular in Norway. In particular, football in Norway, like in the other Nordic countries, has been the top scorer in relation to the market value of commercial TV and sponsorship contracts. But in Norway, football and handball are challenged commercially by winter sports such as cross country skiing, biathlon and alpine skiing. The Norwegian Ski Federation and the Norwegian Biathlon Federation has entered into multi-year commercial partner contracts with Norwegian companies such as Spare Bank 1 (cross-country skiing), Telenor (alpine skiing) and DNB (biathlon). Economy is a more and more important factor in the global sporting arms race, also in winter sports. There is no doubt that the Norwegian great performances in recent weeks have increased the values in commercial partnerships, both individually and with the federations, towards the 2022 Winter Olympics.

Knowledge and experience across sports by the “Olympiatoppen”

Fourthly, the Olympiatoppen (OLT) has strengthened the regional structure in relation to clubs, federations and  research institutions by establishement of eight regional centers.  The centers, which are largely financed by the individual regions, can offer the Norwegian athletes and teams a number of expert services within sports medicine, testing, biomechanics, nutrition and sports psychology – the same services as these at OLT training center in Oslo. It is for that reason not surprising that many of the greatest talents in both cross-country and biathlon come from smaller villages spread throughout Norway. Norway has always had an excellent talent development for children and youngsters up to the age of 16-18 and many world-class athletes, but the transition of a talented junior to a world-class athlete has for many been far too difficult. Especially, it is “the next generation” – the 18-23-year-olds altheletes – who have received far better conditions with a stronger regional structure in Norwegian elite sports.

Research in winter sports – also world-class

Fifthly, the collaboration between OLT and research institutions has been significantly expanded and intensified in recent years. Indeed, research and innovation at the highest international level are crucial for sporting success in international competitions. OLT has, among other things, established a collaboration with the Center for High Performance Research at NTNU about biomechanical analyzes in ski jumping. The purpose of the collaboration has been to analyze technique in ski jumping through measurements of power and movement in the laboratory in order to better understand the connection between hop technique and performance. The researchers at NTNU have carried out various tests and collected data from the athletes in the laboratory to subsequently discuss the athletes’ technique and development together with the coaches of the team. In this way, research contributes to both performance optimization in the short term and to a longer-term development of the best Norwegian ski jumpers.

Also progress for Norway within summer sports

Norway’s dominance in winter sports is also the main reason why Norway has been ranked No. 1 as the World’s best sports nation by the last two years of the International Research Institute “Greatest Sporting Nations” – http://www.greatestsportingnation.com – which includes 98 Olympic and non-Olympic disciplines. The other Nordic countries were placed with Sweden as No. 4, Finland as No. 11 and Denmark as No. 12. In the all nation competition of 2018, Norway achieved an impressive 11’th place in front of strong sports nations like Australia and Spain. In spite of Norway’s impressive results in winter sports, however, it has been more difficult for Norway to maintain a high international level in the summer sports. Both the 2012 Olympics (two gold, one silver and one bronze medal) and the 2016 Olympics (four bronze medals) were big disappointments for Norway. But apparently there is marked progress on the way of Norway in the summer sports. Norway, in contrast to Denmark, Sweden and Finland, has achieved good results the last two years in the summer sports, including athletics, rowing and shooting, so at least 6 Olympic medals for Norway at the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo are definitely not unrealistic.

Cycling – especially track cycling – is both historically and currently one of Denmark’s best sports. Denmark is among the ten best cycling nations in the world despite modest 5,300 license riders under the age of 18 and only three tracks in Ballerup (Copenhagen), Odense and Aarhus. The majority of the 26 Olympic medals, which Denmark has won in cycling, have been achieved on the track and Olympic gold medalists such as Willy Falck Hansen (kilometre time trial in 1928), Niels Fredborg (kilometre time trial in 1972), Dan Frost (points race in 1988) and most recently Lasse Norman Hansen (omnium in 2012) has largely contributed to the Danish olympic history. Danish track riders have won medals at the last three Olympic Games – Beijing 2008, London 2012 and Rio 2016 – and in my opinion, this is also the sport that currently has the best Danish medal chances at the 2020 Olympic Games, both for women and men. There are 22 different Olympic disciplines in cycling (road, track, BMX and MTB) at the 2020 Olympic Games, but 12 of the disciplines – sprint, team sprint, keirin, team pursuit, omnium and race – are held on “Izu Velodrome” in Tokyo. For the first time in the history of the Olympics, the number of disciplines for women and men in cycling is quite similar, both on road, BMX, MTB and track.

4 km team pursuit race is a Danish “parade discipline” at the World Championships and Olympics

Team pursuit, where 4 riders drive a total distance of 4 kilometers, has been on the Olympic program since 1968 and Denmark has very proud traditions in the endurance discipline. The international breakthrough for Denmark in this discipline came at the 1968 Olympics in Mexico City, where the Danish team – Gunnar Asmussen, Reno B. Olsen, Per Lyngemark and Mogens Frey – became Olympic champions (4.22.44) after West Germany was disqualified in the final. In 1992, Denmark also won the Olympic bronze medal in team pursuit.

It was logical that team pursuit became the overall focus of an unique collaboration between Denmark’s Cycle Union (DCU) and Team Denmark, which started in 2005. The aim was Olympic medals in 2012, but this aim would soon turn out to be “overtaken by the realities”. The key topics for the collaboration was some very talented youth riders – Alex Rasmussen, Casper Jørgensen, Michael Mørkøv, Jens-Erik Madsen and Michael Færk Christensen – hiring of an international top coach Heiko Salzwedel, financial resources and a targeted training effort of the squad over a number of years. The team pursuits international breakthrough came already at the 2007 World Championships, where it became a surprising bronze medals – a performance that was awarded with “Talent of the Year” in Danish elite sport. The following year, the team pursuit delivered one of the best Danish olympic performances in Beijing with the silver medals (3.56.81) after Great Britain (3.53.31), but ahead of strong cycling nations like Australia and New Zealand.

Exactly 10 years ago I had – along with Chairman Tom Lund, CEO Jesper Worre and High Performance Manager Lars Bonde from DCU and the UCI president for track cycling – charismatic Peder Pedersen from Odense, who unfortunately died in 2015 – the experience to follow the Danish track riders at the World Championships in Pruszków. Denmark was among the favorites for the World Championship title in team pursuit. The squad – Jens-Erik Madsen, Alex Rasmussen, Michael Mørkøv, Michael Færk Christensen and Casper Jørgensen – fully lived up to favorite role and with a close victory (3.58.25) over Australia (3.58.87) in the WC-final, the Danish squad had reached their absolute highlight – the World Championship. At that time, High Performance Manager Lars Bonde had taken over the task as coach of the national team from Heiko Salzwedel, who is one of the most skilfully coaches I have co-operated with. The World Championship 2009 was historic for Danish track cycling, as Alex Rasmussen and Michael Mørkøv a few days later won the World Championship in Madison and Daniel Kreutzfeldt very surprising won the WC silver medal in points race.

Unique collaboration between the Danish Cycling Union and Team Denmark

DCU and Team Denmark’s collaboration on the team pursuit have so far led to a total of eight World Championship medals (Gold: 2009 – Silver: 2008, 2014 and 2018 – Bronze: 2007, 2013, 2016 and 2019) and two Olympic medals (2008 and 2016) in team pursuit as well as a number of EC-, WC- and Olympic medals in other disciplines of track cycling. Undoubtedly, Team Denmark’s economic investment in track cycling over the past 15 years is one of the most successful in the institution’s history.

In the last five days Pruszków has also hosted the World Championship 2019, where the team pursuit – Lasse Norman Hansen, Casper Folsach, Julius Johansen, Niklas Larsen and Rasmus Lund Pedersen – again succeeded in winning a World Championship medal. The preformances in the preliminary time trial and especially in the semi-finals against Great Britain were a little disappointing, but in the bronze final against Canada, the Danish team showed high international class and set a new Danish record (3.51.80). However, the World Championship also showed that especially Australia, which set a new world record (3.48.01) in the WC final, and Great Britain (3.50.38) are currently favorites for the Olympic final. But Denmark is definitely among the medal candidates for the bronze medals together with Canada and New Zealand.

In addition, Denmark also has very good medal chances in the Madison, where Lasse Norman Hansen and Casper Folsach won the World Championship silver medals only beaten by the German world champions Theo Reinhardt and Roger Kluge. Amalie Dideriksen and Julie Leth also won the WC bronze medal only defeated by the Netherlands and Australia. Both Danish couples showed that the season’s World Cup results have far from been a coincidence. There is no doubt that the Madison status of new Olympic discipline in 2020 is a great advantage for Denmark.

Two or three Olympic medals for track cycling are absolutely realistic

I believe that the Danish chances for Olympic medals are greater in the team pursuit and Madison than in omnium, where 22-year-old Amalie Dideriksen became No. 6 in the women’s omnium and 21-year-old Niklas Larsen became No. 8 in the men’s omnium in Pruszków. Both Danish riders are extremely talented, but in both categories cycling nations like Australia, the Netherlands, Great Britain, France, Italy, United States, France, New Zealand, Belgium and Spain have riders with many competencies and many years of experiences. But young Danish riders have previously surprised as, for example 20-year-old Lasse Norman Hansen, who stationed Olympic gold in omnium at the 2012 Olympic Games.

However, there is no doubt that Danish track cucling has significantly more Olympic medal candidates than ever before. In my opinion, it is not unrealistic that Denmark wins two or three Olympic medals in Tokyo, even though the competition is going to be very tough.

Finland has a strong historical tradition for elite sports. Since the Olympic debut in 1908, the proud sports nation has won a total of 303 medals at the Summer Olympics, ranking Finland with a modest population of 5.5 million inhabitants as the most winning nation per inhabitants of all 28 Summer Olympics – in front of Hungary, Sweden and Denmark. However, most of the Olympic medals have been won before 1960, ex. Finland at the 1924 Olympic Games won a total of 37 Olympic medals, primarily in athletics and wrestling. This excellent result gave Finland an impressive 2’nd place among 44 nations – after the United States, but ahead of strong sports nations such as Great Britain, France and Italy. From 1960 forwards, however, it has become increasingly difficult for Finnish athletes and teams to win medals at the Summer Olympics and at the last eight Summer Olympics Finland has only won a total of 28 medals. The historical low came at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio with one single bronze medal won by the female boxer Sergiu Toma.Finland has, not least because of climatic conditions with frost and snow more than half of the year, achieved excellent results during decades in international winter sports, such as cross-country skiing, ski jumping, speed skating, Nordic combined, biathlon and ice hockey. Finland has won a total of 167 medals at the Winter Olympics since its debut in 1924 and since the mid-1970’s Finland has won more medals at the Winter Olympics than at the Summer Olympics. The best winter Olympics for Finland were in Sarajevo 1984, when a total of 13 Olympic medals were achieved. Finland has won a total of 77 medals at the last ten Winter Olympics and at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games in Pyeongchang the Finnish athletes and teams won six medals, including Olympic gold medal by Ilvo Niskanen in “the discipline of the kings” – men’s 50 km cross country skiing.

Finland is one of the world’s strongest ice hockey nations

Finland has strong traditions, both in individual sports and team sports. Especially in men’s volleyball, Finland has in recent years achieved good results at European Championships and World Championships and it is a very realistic target for Finnish volleyball to qualify for the Olympic Games in 2020 or 2024. Also, in the nation sport – ice hockey – Finland has for decades belonged to the best nations, ex. the men’s national team – “The Lions” – won the Olympic silver medals in 2006 and the World Championship in 2011. I am very impressed by the quality of talent development in Finnish ice hockey. Finland has won 3 out of the last 6 World Championship for the U-20 national teams and 2 out of the latest 3 World Championship for U-18 national teams in a competition with strong ice hockey nations such as the United States, Canada, Russia, Sweden and the Czech Republic, which all have a much larger amount of youth players. The Finnish talent development in ice hockey, both in the clubs and the Finnish Ice Hockey Association, is, in my opinion, among the world’s best in team sports.

Good facilities, but unclear distribution of roles and responsibilities within elite sports

There are far more similarities than differences between sports in Finland and the other Nordic countries. Finland has a diverse network of clubs with many competent coaches and volunteers in many different sports. These conditions combined with high material prosperity and extremely good sports facilities, have been the main reasons why Finland, like the other three Nordic nations, has been among the best sports nations in the world for more than a century, not least in relation to the modest nation’s population. The biggest difference between Finland and the other Nordic countries has been at the organizational level, where up to two years ago, Finland has had a very unmanageable structure with several national sports organizations and an unclear distribution of roles and responsibilities between the various actors, both at national, regional and local level. It has therefore been imperative for the development of Finnish sports to start a comprehensive organizational process of reforms, both within “Sport for all” and elite sports. For this reason, in 2008, the Government set up a working group to prepare a new organizational structure for elite sports in Finland – like Team Denmark in Denmark and Olympiatoppen in Norway. The result was “High Performance Unit” (HPU), which was established in 2013 within the Finnish Olympic Committee (FOC). However, it was not until 2017 that FOC became the only national sports organization in Finland.

Collaboration between “High Performance Unit” and “Research Center for Olympic Sport”

For more than two years I have had a very good collaboration with HPU, which uses my knowledge and experiences from national and international elite sports. We have now formalized the collaboration towards the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo and selected a number of topics where the CEO of HPU Mika Lehtimäki and his staff can get my advice and recommendations on how to use their resources – both financial, professional and human – as best as possible. Next week I will be back to Finland to meet with the new CEO Aki Salo and the staff of “Research Center for Olympic Sports” (KIHU). The center, which was established in 1991 in collaboration with University of Jyväskylä, is responsible for HPU’s development and research activities within biological, medical and social sciences. KIHU has recruited 35 professional experts and researchers who advise and guide athletes, coaches and high performence managers in selected sports. It is absolutely crucial to establish and develop well-functioning cooperative relationships between these actors, if Finnish athletes and teams are to participate in the fight for medals in international events. Another important task in next week will be presentations and discussions on optimization of performance with high performance managers and national coaches in the sports with the potential for top 8 rankings at the 2020 Olympic Games. At present, we see the potentials within sailing, wrestling, boxing, shooting, cycling and athletics.

There is no doubt that Finnish elite sports today face a number of major challenges, especially in traditional sports such as athletics, gymnastics and ski jumping. Nobody can live on past results, legends and memories, because the international competition in Olympic sports, both summer and winter sports, is getting tougher and tougher. If the development in Finnish elite sports is to be reversed, it requires patience with the new organizational structure, a clear distribution of roles and responsibilities between the various actors and, last but not least, more economic resources for Finnish elite sports, both from the Finnish government and commercial partners.

The 2019 World Championship in men’s team handball starts in next week and Denmark is the host nation for the second time in history. The hostess is shared with Germany, but except for the opening match against Chile played in Copenhagen and the two semifinals played in Hamburg, all Denmark’s matches are played in Herning. I’m absolutely convinced that Denmark will be one of the four semi-finalists and I actually believe that Denmark will for the first time ever win the World Championship in men’s team handball.

Three World Championship silver medals – but never World Champions

So far Denmark has won four World Championship medals; Three of silver (1967, 2011 and 2013) and one of bronze (2007). But only at the 2011 World Championship Denmark was close to the title as world champion. The tournament in Sweden 8 years ago was – including Denmark’s first European Championship title in 2008 and in Serbia 4 years later – in my opinion the best international tournament that a Danish national team has played ever. In the semi-final against Spain (28-24) in Kristianstad and in the final against France (35-37) in Malmö, which was first decided after “additional time”, the Danish national team showed absolute world-class. Denmark deserved the World Championship title in 2011, but as so often before, France was best in the decisive seconds of the WC-final.

Both the 2011 World Championship final in Malmö and the European Championship finals in Lillehammer and Belgrade I followed as spectator. But I also remember the 1967 World Championship final between Denmark and Czechoslovakia in 1967, which I followed as a 9-year-old kid on a black-and-white television in freezing temperatures outside the local TV and radio shop in Aarhus. The fascination of the TV broadcasts from Västerås in Sweden contributed greatly to the fact that I immediately after the 1967 World Championship began playing handball in Viby IF and that many Sunday afternoons in the years thereafter were spent with exciting handball events in Aarhus Arena, when Aarhus KFUM, AGF and Skovbakken fought for the national championship title against HG, Stadion, Efterslægten, Helsingør IF, SAGA and Fredericia KFUM. Where are all these “honorable” clubs today – “closed”, merged with other clubs or placed in the Danish handball’s second or third Leagues?

The goalkeeper is always the “key player” for international top results

The expectations for a Danish victory in the 1967 World Championship final were great after a surprising Danish victory of 17-12 against the favorite of the tournament Soviet Union in the semi-final. It was the match where one of my childhood heroes – the goalkeeper Erik Holst from Aarhus KFUM – was a “living wooden fence” and where he made the goalkeeping position in handball for something very special. Just think of the other “legends” on this “ungrateful” position: Mogens “Muggi” Jeppesen in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, Kasper Hvidt at the beginning of this century and in the past decade – Niklas Landin. The goalkeeper’s performance has always been crucial, when the European Championship, the World Championship or the Olympic medals in team sports as handball are distributed.

That is why, in my opinion, Niklas Landin is Denmark’s absolute “key player” in relation to a Danish World Championship success in the coming weeks. It is not an easy task for a goalkeeper to top-performe in all matches during the WC, so the Danish national team will definitely need assistance from Jannick Green, who has also shown world-class in decisive matches. Landin and Green is, however, very dependent on a strong central defense with the brothers René and Henrik Toft Hansen and Henrik Mølgaard as key players, not least when the Danish national team reaches the semi-final and the final. I don’t think that Denmark is having a lot of challenges of scoring many goals in either the preliminary round or the main round – the number and variations of attack combinations are far too diverse. But a strong central defense with a clear division of responsibilities and roles will be crucial to the performances of Landin and/or Green, especially in the semi-final and the final.

Another important reason for my WC optimism is a very favorable draw for the Danish national team. Denmark will, right up to the semi-finals, avoids strong nations such as France, Spain, Germany and Croatia. In fact, I think that Denmark can only be challenged by Norway (17.1.) in the preliminary round and by Sweden in the main round. The national teams from Chile (10.1.), Tunisia (12.1.), Saudi Arabia (14.1.) and Austria (15.1.) in the preliminary round and Hungary, Qatar or Egypt in the main round, in my opinion, are really without chances against a Danish national team that has the support of the whole nation and not least of the 15,000 enthusiastic spectators in the Boxen.

“Site Les experts” can be defeated – just like at the 2016 Olympics

The biggest challenge to a Danish World Championship success is, from my perspective, France, which has been totally dominant in international men’s team handball since the millennium. Olympic gold medals in 2008 and 2012, World Champions in 1995, 2001, 2009, 2011, 2015 and 2017 and European Champions in 2006, 2010 and 2014 testify to a completely unique national team, which has also given itself the name: “Site Les experts” – the experts. France, with experienced players such as Karabatic, Guigou and Sohaindo, all played more than 200 international matches, complemented by younger world-class players like Fabregas, Mem, Tournat and Remili are also this time – together with Spain, Croatia and Germany – among the favorites of the World Championship title. But Denmark has shown – ex. in the Olympic finals 2016 in Rio – that France can be defeated. I think the same result will happen on Sunday 27 of January 2019 in Herning.

Poor results of Danish athletes and teams in 2018 than in 2014

It’s difficult to compare sport results in each year as the number and grade of international championships are different. The most accurate analysis is, in my opinion, to compare results in 2018 and 2014 in relation to the number of World Championships medals in the Olympic disciplines and top 8 ranking points at World Rankings. In both measurements, Denmark’s result in 2018 is poorer than in 2014. Unfortunately, the sad trend of 2017 continues with a markedly falling level of performances of Danish elite sport. Danish top-athletes and teams won in 2018 five medals at the World Championships in Olympic disciplines. Cycling has been the most winning sports with three medals at WC; Silver medals for Amalie Dideriksen (track cycling – omnium), 4 km team pursuit (track cycling) and Annika Langvad (MTB), while the other two WC-medals were won by Emma Jørgensen (silver medal in kayak – K1 200) and Anne-Marie Rindom (bronze medal in sailing – Laser Radial). In 2014, Danish top athletes and teams won eight medals at WC, distributed on badminton (3), sailing (2), rowing (1), cycling (1) and kayaking (1).

No gold medals in Olympic disciplines

There are Olympic sports where there has been no World Championships in 2018. The Danish Institute for Sports Studies (IDAN) has chosen this year to include either World Ranking (tennis, swimming and athletics) or EC Ranking (handball) to compare the results for all years. If this method is used, the Danish top-athletes and team results in 2018 is significantly poorer than the results in 2014: 7 “WC-medals” (5 silver medals and 2 bronze medals = 12 medal points) this year against 13 “WC-medals” (2 gold-, 7 silver- and 4 bronze medals = 24 medal points) in 2014. In particular, it is very remarkable that Denmark in 2018 did not win a single WC-gold medal in Olympic disciplines – it happened last time in 1983, 35 years ago. If top 8 ranking points at the World Championships are used as a benchmark for Danish results in 2018, it’s still a sad trend for Danish elite sport. Danish top-athletes and teams achieved 122 top 8 ranking points this year against 129 top 8 ranking points in 2014.

Cycling is the sport with the best medal chances at the 2020 Olympics

The best results of Danish athletes and teams in 2018 were achieved in cycling, both in track cycling, road cycling, MTB and BMX. Especially, women’s performances have been very uplifting and Denmark can really benefit from a larger number of Olympic disciplines for women at the 2020 Olympic Games. Cycling is the sovereign sports with the greatest medal potentials at the upcoming Olympics. Of course, not all medal candidates win an Olympic medal, but I think cycling wins at least three and maybe four or five Olympic medals in Tokyo. Based on the results of 2o18, I also think that kayaking with Emma Jørgensen (K1 200) and Rene Holten Poulsen (K1 1,000), sailing with Anne-Marie Rindom in Laser Radial, men’s team handball, and swimming with Pernille Blume (50 meters free) have good medal potentials at the 2020 OG. However, the number of Danish Olympic medal candidates in Tokyo 2020 is currently clearly less than the number of Olympic medal candidates 20 months before Rio 2016 and London 2012, where Denmark won “only” 9 Olympic medals (2 gold -, 4 silver and 3 bronze medals) in 5 different sports.

Several sports have great difficulty in maintaining international top level

Two sports – badminton and rowing – traditionally achieving international top results at the World Championships and the Olympic Games, are, from my perspective, today without Olympic medal candidates – except Viktor Axelsen, who became World Champion in 2017 and he is still among the world’s top badminton players. Both rowing and badminton had before the last two Olympic 3-4 medal candidates – this is definitely not the case today. At the moment, I do not see Danish Olympic medal chances either in athletics or in wrestling. So, in total, eight Olympic medals in 2020 are, in my opinion, the most realistic Danish facit based on the results at WC in the last two years – 2017 and 2018. Unfortunately, this number is very far from the 15 Olympic medals (2 gold -, 6 silver and 7 bronze medals) in 9 different sports that Denmark achieved at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio. There are several explanations for the sad development, but the most important reason is, in my opinion, a weak support programme for Danish elite sports in the period 2017-2020. The price for a visionless and inadequate support programme can be very high and Team Denmark should – as soon as possible – develop and launch a new support programme of far more quality.

The world is changeable and much can change within a split second – also in elite sport. With this positive message, I would like to wish everyone in Danish and international elite sport a happy New Year.